The Outlook Blog

What we're seeing - 5 December 2018

This week we are updating the outlook for trade, based on our latest Global Dairy Directions newsletter to subscribers. 

While it’s a fairly balanced picture for the global dairy market heading into 2019, there are quite different drivers for individual commodities in key exporting regions. We highlight the critical pieces of the puzzle that will determine the direction of international prices next year.

It’s our last Outlook blog video for 2018, thanks for watching and see you in 2019.


Chart of the Week

Finally – a rise in the GDT price index this week, the first since May this year.  Prices rose 2.2% on average on a smaller offering of 36,450t, compared to 42,966t at the prior event.

WMP prices rose 2.5% to average US$2,667/t, with the strongest rises in recorded in early contract periods. SMP rose 0.3% to average US$1,970/t with January prices down 5.2% and subsequent contracts positive with the exception of April. Ongoing SMP intervention sales are likely to keep SMP gains modest.

Fat prices recovered after copping a beating at the last event. Last week Fonterra removed 2,000t each of butter and AMF from GDT for the next few months. Butter prices rose 2.7% to average US$3,745/t. AMF prices rose 3.9% to US$4,755/t, with strong rises in each delivery period apart from April.

This is our take on what’s happening in Australian, New Zealand and global dairy markets based on our weekly Dairyglobe newsletter. Interested in subscribing to the Dairyglobe? Contact our office on or +613 8414 0904 or read more here!

Freshagenda’s Previous Outlook Blogs (External link)

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value