The Outlook Blog

What we're seeing - 29 August 2018

This week we’re exploring what’s happening in New Zealand trade, export trends have been pretty flat in recent years but is that about to change? New Zealand’s pasture growth is off the charts, look out for a big season? 

Following the fallout from Trump’s trade terror, we cover the US rescue package which was supposed to reduce the impact of the retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and China. Will it be enough to keep dairy farming Trump supporters on side? 


Chart of the Week

Indonesian FTA to be signed – Australia’s new prime minister Scott Morrison is tipped to sign a trade agreement with Indonesia this week as he heads to Jakarta. The long-stalled negotiations were launched in 2010 and resumed in 2016. Protectionists within Indonesia have slowed the agreement with market access on goods, services and investment the last matter for agreement. The Australian government wants a deal to secure opening of new markets and opportunities for businesses, primary producers, service providers and investors.  

Indonesia is Australia’s third-largest trading partner, with two-way trade valued at $16.4bn in 2016/17. Australia’s dairy exports to Indonesia were valued at $192.6m in calendar 2017. 

This is our take on what’s happening in Australian, New Zealand and global dairy markets based on our weekly Dairyglobe newsletter. Interested in subscribing to the Dairyglobe? Contact our office on or +613 8414 0904 or read more here!

Freshagenda’s Previous Outlook Blogs (External link)


Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value