The Outlook Blog


This week,  we discuss our latest Global Dairy Directions update and what is affecting dairy production, manufacturing and trade around the world.  EU weather, the New Zealand season, trade disputes and other factors which contribute to the balancing of global dairy markets are debated. We analyse the latest GDT result which saw all commodities lose ground – for the first time since 2016. Lastly, we get into how African Swine Flu in China and trade disputes are affecting US dairy output.

Chart of the Week

June cheese production rose 0.6% YOY according to the USDA’s latest Dairy Products report. However American cheese output was down 0.6% YOY (with a 1.9% decline for Cheddar) while “other cheese” – including mozzarella – increased 1.5% YOY. Cheese production was up 0.8% for the year to date. We estimate there was a 0.5% increase in manufacturing milk availability for the period after accounting for the fall in fluid milk output.

Combined output of NFDM & SMP fell 5.5% YOY in June, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. SMP output was down 2.3% YOY in June while NFDM production increased 2.2% for the month.


Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value