The Outlook Blog

What we’re seeing this week

This week, Steve and Jo are experiencing the joys of Australia’s internet infrastructure as they work from home while socially isolating.

There are some highlights from the latest trade trends, remember the good old days of January? We look at the trends, with overall trade down at the beginning of 2020 after a big finish to 2019. Regional trends show how strong Chinese demand was prior to COVID-19 taking hold. We discuss likely developments as the pandemic rolls around the world economy for global dairy trade.

We also share the latest in Australia’s response to the COVID-19, which is….confusing, as various governments balance health and economic imperatives. What has been less confusing and really effective in messaging has been the National Farmers Federation campaign to calm shopper fears about food shortages. These messages which are clear, and from such a trusted source in the farming community are terrific. Check the campaign out if you haven’t already,

Chart of the Week

New Zealand WMP shipments were 0.2% higher YOY in February to 138,849t, following a 16.4% YOY decline in January and a 4.5% YOY decline in December. WMP shipments increased in double digits between September and November. WMP shipments to China & HK increased 13.5% YOY in February, so the overall near-flat result was driven by declines in shipments to South America (-92.2% YOY), ASEAN (-7.2% YOY) and Africa (-5.2% YOY). For the season-to-date (June-February), total WMP exports rose just 0.8% as shipments to China & HK lifted 11.2%.

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value