The Outlook Blog

What we're seeing - 4 April 2019

This week we wrap up the key findings from our latest Global Dairy Directions Quarterly report – in just five charts ( well Steve stuck in an extra one). It’s a complex outlook, but we highlight the main drivers that are affecting market balance for key dairy commodities AND the regional dynamics at play.

Our Global Dairy Directions 2018 Annual Trade Insights report is now available. It’s a comprehensive with a recap of the year that There’s some stunning facts and highlights of global dairy trade, sign up here if you would like a free copy.

 

Chart of the Week

The EU Commission released last week’s MMO meeting papers including estimates of stocks, based on a survey by the processor lobby organisation EDA. The numbers were a tad surprising – more so the revisions made to past stocks through 2018 for butter and SMP. The report indicates SMP stocks are at their lowest in four years. Butter stocks, on the other hand, are high when compared to 2017 and 2018. Cheese stocks have diminished in recent months due to lower milk supply and good export performance.

Two dudes talking about dairy markets

This episode was such a blockbuster, it has taken us some time to upload, but it’s definitely worth the wait. Freshagenda Director Steve Spencer chats to Anup Singh of Chicago-based Solera Advisors.

Solera is a commercial and risk management advisory with a focus on agricultural markets. Solera Advisors seeks to help its clients generate risk adjusted returns through employing a range of strategies sensitive to global macro, fundamental and relative value analysis and cross asset arbitrage balanced by capital preservation techniques.

In other words Anup knows alot about global dairy markets and how to deploy risk management tools to manage volatility! This is a fascinating discussion covering the fundamentals of SMP, WMP and cheese markets

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value