The Outlook Blog

What we're seeing - 7 February 2019

There’s been another positive GDT auction, the fifth in a row. It’s perhaps surprising given the strong growth in New Zealand milk output in recent months. This week we take a look at the wider market settings that are influencing sentiment and commodity prices. Understanding the demand dynamics for key developing markets is key – and this week we showcase a new features of our Dairy Trade Simulator that helps users do just that.

There’s some highlights from our latest Global Dairy Directions outlook released late last month. Now that the US government has re-opened – at least for now – we can update some of the Trade Insights, which highlight the interesting short-term challenges the industry faces in utilising a steadily growing milk pool.

Chart of the Week

The USDA reports OctoberNFDM stocks rosefrom the previous month. While this was a 9.4% YOY fall in NFDM inventories, it was still 34.7% above the 5-year average for the month of November. The stock buildup was despite slowing NFDM manufacture, suggesting demand was worse-than-expected. Stocks of dry whey – including both human and animal product – fell 34.6% YOY at the end of November - 6.5% below the 5-year average.

This is our take on what’s happening in Australian, New Zealand and global dairy markets based on our weekly Dairyglobe newsletter. Interested in subscribing to the Dairyglobe? Contact our office on info@freshagenda.com.au or +613 8414 0904 or read more here!

Freshagenda’s Previous Outlook Blogs (External link)

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value