The Outlook Blog

What we’re seeing this week

This week we are analysing the fifth consecutive positive GDT result. Jo and Steve look at the varying trends in products and buyers as well as what it means for payouts to Kiwi farmers. The positive auction result was preceded by the timely release of New Zealand milk production, which was down in October.

However, we look at some other news out of the EU and US on production trends that indicate the global milk supply situation is quite mixed. Within Europe, product mix data is also interesting. Come for the insights, stay for Steve’s unfortunate attempt at a Kiwi accent.

Don’t miss Freshagenda’s take on global dairy markets!

Chart of the Week

The US cheese market corrects After surging through to the end of October, CME cheese block prices have corrected substantially, and now sit at US$4,051/t. Both blocks are barrels are reported as relatively more available. CME barrels are now trading at US$4,740/t, with the barrels-to-blocks spread US$138/t lower than the peak of US$827/t reached on 12 November.

US futures are currently trading between US$3,950 and US$4,000/t.


Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value