Spot CMV

1 June 2020

The Australian spot commodity milk value declined this week, with a stronger Australian dollar in addition to weaker cheddar and butter prices.

In spot quotes from Australasian exporters, cheddar fell US$100/t from the prior week to US$3,830/t. Butter prices also dropped – down US$30/t from the previous week at US$3,830/t. WMP quotes were unchanged from the previous week at US$2650/t. SMP prices were stronger however, up US$150/t from the previous week to US$2,600/t.

The Australian dollar increased against the US dollar, ending the week at US$0.6668, pushing back to pre-COVID levels as the RBA maintains interest rates in a low band, but acknowledges that better than expected public health outcomes may reduce the negative economic impact.

The combined impact of these factors pruned 24 cents from the commodity milk value for southern Australian dairy manufacturers which now stands at $5.97/kgMS.

It should be noted that some Oceania spot prices quoted have been slow to respond to wider global trends, given limited spot trade availability. The critical price for the Australian dairy industry is cheddar, if quotes were reduced to US$3,350/t (roughly where EU prices are currently) the CMV would be $5.34kgMS. While we will continue the Oceania series we have tracked for many years, we would urge some caution in interpreting the numbers under the current circumstances.

The spot commodity milk value (CMV) is updated weekly as an estimate of milk value based on weekly spot prices for key commodities and the average industry product mix, converted to Australian dollar, net of costs.

Between 2011/12 and 2018/19 the CMV has averaged over 80% of final farmgate returns – ranging between 70% and 95% of the final average price paid by manufacturers in southern Australia. For more information on the CMV calculation please visit this page.

Freshagenda’s commodity milk value (CMV) measurement and outlook is based on spot prices and Freshagenda’s forecasts of fundamental values of major commodity products.

Our commodity milk value (CMV) measurement and outlook is based on spot prices and Freshagenda’s forecasts of fundamental values of major commodity products (cheese, butter, whole and skim milk powder), based on our rolling outlook for the global dairy trade balance.  Projected product values are converted into a value of milk at farmgate using the industry’s product mix, deducting conversion costs, and converting to Australian dollars per kilogram of milksolids.

How can I use Freshagenda’s commodity milk value?

Between 2011/12 and 2016/17 the CMV has averaged around 80% of final southern farmgate returns – ranging between 70% and 95% of the final average price paid by manufacturers in southern Australia.

Who are Freshagenda?

Freshagenda is led by food industry consultants and analysts with combined hands-on experience in excess of 45 years in commodity markets and value chain analysis. We have a solid commercial understanding of market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains and delivers complex information in concise, easy-to-understand formats.

What is Global Dairy Directions?

A forward looking tool that allows dairy companies, brokers, traders and processors to project the outcome of future scenarios in global and local dairy markets based on variable key assumptions.

Built in Microsoft Excel, our Global Dairy Directions platform uses historical data along with a big set of macros, allowing users to run queries, test scenarios and project future possible outcomes in their part of the dairy industry. It spans the globe as it contains data from key dairying regions all over the world and thus can be used as a tool to help navigate strategic planning at management level.

We include trade data from South America, the US, Europe, New Zealand and Australia as well as other emerging regions. We rely on different sources for our data, including Global Trade Tracker which provides us with up-to-date data, so our clients always have the latest available data at their hands.