Global Dairy Directions

Global Dairy Directions (GDD) is a dynamic market analysis and risk management platform aimed at providing time-sensitive input to decision makers on what is likely to develop in the world dairy market – rather than telling what just happened.

Click here: Why use the GDD?

The features of the package are:

  • An outlook of projected trade flows in the world market for the short term (monthly for 2 years) and long term (annually for 10 years)
  • A comprehensive view of where the market is heading – what will make it turn and in what likely time frame?
  • Projecting the expected market tension based on variables affecting the outlook
  • The sensitivity of the outlook to changing demand and supply variables
  • The implication of the outlook for market sentiment and export prices for those key commodities
  • Latest developments and trends affecting the major variables that significantly affect the trade balance
  • A profile of developments in key countries and regions
  • Analysis of major investments in dairy capacity being made in exporting regions – the size, scale, product focus and timing of major investments
  • What the outlook means for expected farmgate milk prices, through a Commodity Milk Index for Southern Australia.

MTI-Range of Outcomes

 

 

The platform uses a dairy trade simulator which is built on actual trade data between exporters and destination markets, assuming production growth, domestic consumption, product mix and import demand at country and regional levels.

The GDD provides a continuous process of tracking, monitoring and global-market scenario updates, allowing users to interact with the outlook and our knowledge base throughout the year.  Samples of the analysis products that are available as part of the service can be found here.

Our Simulator - What it does

The Dairy Trade Simulator (DTS) underpins the Global Dairy Directions analysis package. It encompasses the total global dairy trade in a single simulation tool with both short-term and long-term dimensions.

  • It calculates a world market balance in terms of the major dairy commodity products and in milk-equivalents terms over time.
  • It allows rapid assessment of the sensitivity of the trade balance to movements in the key variables.
  • It is updated as trends and indicators emerge, providing a rolling base case short-term outlook.

The model is based on assumptions as to:

  • Milk production growth in major producing exporters
  • Product mix – the use of milk in major commodity product groups – of major exporters
  • Dairy product consumption in major export producers – affecting volumes available for export
  • Prevailing stock levels held by major exporters
  • Changes in import demand from customer countries
  • Changes in consumption in major dairy import markets.

DTS chart

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The DTS is continuously updated by our team based on fresh trade data and intelligence from a wide range of sources.  We produce a monthly revision of the projected outlook, which is summarised in our monthly newsletter.

Rather than rely on update reports and newsletters, users can now access a desktop version of the simulator to load their own outlook assumptions (from their own business and market intelligence, or to test “what-ifs) to create their own outlook scenarios. Our service updates and maintains a base model as updates come to hand for trade and production data and key outlook variables.

How can you get involved?

Users may subscribe annually to the service, and can select one or more of the following components:

  1. Basic service – Two comprehensive analysis reports (issued June and December) setting out the market outlook, with monthly updates provided through our Directions newsletter.
  2. Simulation tool – users can access our desktop Dairy Trade Simulator (which is updated monthly for trade and other data updates), allowing users to build/maintain their own scenarios based on views on supply and demand outlooks.
  3. Packaged trade insights through an inquiry database
  4. Ad-hoc analysis and briefing presentations to management or boards.

If you are interested in this service, please enquire here using the form below.

Alternatively, contact Steve Spencer on email steve@freshagenda.com.au or call +61417969873.

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If you are interested in a subscription, or simply discuss why and how you might be able to use the GDD, please enquire below.

This should be your primary email address to which we will respond.

Do you have any specific interest areas, other comments or questions?

Global Dairy Directions (GDD) is a dynamic market analysis and risk management tool aimed at providing time-sensitive input to decision makers on what is likely to develop in the world dairy market – rather than telling what just happened.

The features of the Global Dairy Directions (GDD) package are:

  • An outlook of projected trade flows in the world market for the short term (monthly for 2 years) and long term (annually for 10 years)
  • A comprehensive view of where the market is heading – what will make it turn and in what likely time frame?
  • The sensitivity of the outlook to changing demand and supply variables
  • The implication of the outlook for market sentiment and export prices for those key commodities
  • Latest developments and trends affecting the major variables that significantly affect the trade balance
  • A profile of developments in key countries and regions
  • Analysis of major investments in dairy capacity being made in exporting regions – the size, scale, product focus and timing of major investments

The Global Dairy Directions platform uses a dairy trade simulator which is built on actual trade data between exporters and destination markets, assuming production growth, domestic consumption, product mix and import demand at country and regional levels.

The Global Dairy Directions provides a continuous process of tracking, monitoring and global-market scenario updates, allowing users to interact with the outlook and our knowledge base throughout the year.