The Outlook Blog

What we're seeing - 22 August 2018

This week we’re discussing the hot topics surrounding dairy trade around the globe, based on our latest Global Dairy Directions Trade Insights report. Ranging from the big picture to regional trends, we’re tracking the import and export volume and price trends for the first half of 2018. June trade activity was well down on a strong comparative last year, but there are some interesting regional and product-based sub-plots.  

 The US is an often mentioned topic over the past weeks, we turn our attention to regional milk production and how the hot weather has impacted growth throughout the country.  

 

Chart of the Week

GDT: fats hammered– At GDT event 218, the price index fell 3.6% as all commodities fell, except rennet casein. Butter lost 8.5%. There were falls across all contracts, most significantly in the short-term with October and November deliveries down 11.8% and 8.8%. Meanwhile, AMF was down 6.8% with all contracts lower, September and November contracts were down 9.2%. Cheddar was also down 4.9%, there were falls in all contract periods, most significantly for short-term deliveries.    

 Powders dropped with WMP prices down 2.5%. All contracts fell, the biggest fall recorded for September deliveries, down 8.2%. SMP shedding 1.1%, down across all contracts. September and November dropped 3.8% and 2.7%, respectively.     

 Prior to the auction, Fonterra has increased its butter and AMF volumes on offer for this event from its previous 2 August forecast. Butter volumes were up 8.1% from the prior event and 20.1% higher than the same auction last year. AMF volumes were lifted up 1.9% from the previous auction and 21.5% higher from the same event last year.  

This is our take on what’s happening in Australian, New Zealand and global dairy markets based on our weekly Dairyglobe newsletter. Interested in subscribing to the Dairyglobe? Contact our office on info@freshagenda.com.au or +613 8414 0904 or read more here!

Freshagenda’s Previous Outlook Blogs (External link)

 

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on this week in global dairy markets, directly from our weekly publication The Dairyglobe, which focus on supply/demand & farmgate prices

Freshagenda’s Outlook Blog is our take on global dairy markets based on analysis of recent data; across dairy production, policies and other events affecting dairy trade and production across the world.

Our weekly newsletter The Dairyglobe is a concise summary of what’s happening in major dairy regions and from our analysis, we choose a chart of the week, which highlights what’s hot right now in dairy.

Freshagenda is a group of food industry consultants and analysts based in Melbourne focusing exclusively on the food industry with expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions in a number of food sectors.

We specialise in food and have a working understanding of the market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains. We are a leader in mapping and profiling agribusiness value chains in Australian and global contexts – and helps you understand and interpret value chains better.

Our experience spans a variety of sectors such as dairy, meat, grains, seafood, fruit and vegetables, cotton and other processed foods. By taking a whole-of-chain approach based on commercial reality as to how things work, we map out food value chains in the food industry in terms of:

  • the structure of sectors from farm to consumers;
  • product volumes flowing through various channels to the consumer (domestic and export);
  • estimating prices at key points and costs;
  • how value chains operate in key food categories and nature of commercial relationships between supply chain participants;
  • identifying drivers of volume and value, including economic and other market influences

Freshagenda has developed Global Dairy Directions; which consist of a range of product options to give clients insights in global dairy markets.

Our Global Dairy Directions provides a:

  • continuous, rolling outlook for the global dairy market – in the short and long term;
  • A framework of analysis that provides a holistic view of the total market, as well as in key production and market regions;
  • A simulation platform which allows users to readily assess the sensitivity of the outlook to change, and to create and test future scenarios;
  • An efficient and convenient resource designed to support and inform risk management, planning & budgeting, and in-house analysis;
  • A platform that provides robust indicators of market tension, projected commodity values and trends in supply and demand

It’s available to clients in a number of different ways, depending on their requirements and resources.

Outlook blog - Commodity Milk Value