Spot CMV

10 September 2018

The Australian spot commodity milk value rose this week, the result of a weaker Australian dollar and mixed trends in commodity prices.

In average spot quotes from Australasian exporters, butter prices dropped for the third consecutive week – down US$100/t to US$4,400/t. WMP prices were also again weaker from the prior week – down US$50/t at US$2,850/t. SMP prices rose US$25/t from the prior week but continued to be range-bound at US$2,025/t. Cheddar prices lifted US$75/t to US$3,775/t – reflecting positive trends from last week’s GDT event.

The Australian dollar ended the week lower at US$0.7106, reflecting better-than-expected US jobs report as well as comments by President Trump that additional tariffs may be imposed by the US on imports of Chinese goods.

These factors combined to push the weekly spot commodity milk value for southern Australian dairy manufacturers higher by 15 cents to $5.45/kgMS. This compares to our current 2018/19 full season forecast for the CMV of $5.60/kgMS.

The spot commodity milk value (CMV) is updated weekly by us as an estimate of milk value based on weekly spot prices for key commodities and the average industry product mix, converted to Australian dollar, net of costs.

Between 2011/12 and 2016/17 the CMV has averaged over 80% of final farmgate returns – ranging between 70% and 95% of the final average price paid by manufacturers in southern Australia. For more information on the CMV calculation please visit this page.

About the spot Commodity Milk Value

Freshagenda’s approach to assessing milk price outlooks recognises there are two components of milk prices paid by manufacturers in southern Australia – a commodity value of milk, which reflects the returns from the global market for dairy products, and an additional value captured on top of base commodity returns.

The spot commodity milk value (CMV) measurement and outlook is based on spot prices and Freshagenda’s forecasts of fundamental values of major commodity products (cheese, butter, whole and skim milk powder), based on our rolling outlook for the global dairy trade balance.  Projected product values are converted into a value of milk at farmgate using the industry’s product mix, deducting conversion costs, and converting to Australian dollars per kilogram of milksolids.

Between 2011/12 and 2016/17 the CMV has averaged around 80% of final southern farmgate returns – ranging between 70% and 95% of the final average price paid by manufacturers in southern Australia.

 

Freshagenda’s commodity milk value (CMV) measurement and outlook is based on spot prices and Freshagenda’s forecasts of fundamental values of major commodity products.

Our commodity milk value (CMV) measurement and outlook is based on spot prices and Freshagenda’s forecasts of fundamental values of major commodity products (cheese, butter, whole and skim milk powder), based on our rolling outlook for the global dairy trade balance.  Projected product values are converted into a value of milk at farmgate using the industry’s product mix, deducting conversion costs, and converting to Australian dollars per kilogram of milksolids.

How can I use Freshagenda’s commodity milk value?

Between 2011/12 and 2016/17 the CMV has averaged around 80% of final southern farmgate returns – ranging between 70% and 95% of the final average price paid by manufacturers in southern Australia.

Who are Freshagenda?

Freshagenda is led by food industry consultants and analysts with combined hands-on experience in excess of 45 years in commodity markets and value chain analysis. We have a solid commercial understanding of market dynamics affecting food industry sectors and supply chains and delivers complex information in concise, easy-to-understand formats.

What is Global Dairy Directions?

A forward looking tool that allows dairy companies, brokers, traders and processors to project the outcome of future scenarios in global and local dairy markets based on variable key assumptions.

Built in Microsoft Excel, our Global Dairy Directions platform uses historical data along with a big set of macros, allowing users to run queries, test scenarios and project future possible outcomes in their part of the dairy industry. It spans the globe as it contains data from key dairying regions all over the world and thus can be used as a tool to help navigate strategic planning at management level.

We include trade data from South America, the US, Europe, New Zealand and Australia as well as other emerging regions. We rely on different sources for our data, including Global Trade Tracker which provides us with up-to-date data, so our clients always have the latest available data at their hands.